The article outlines the future outlook and capex plans of the company, which is a diversified energy major with a presence across the entire value chain from conventional and renewable generation to coal mining, power trading, e-mobility, and green hydrogen.
With a market capitalization of Rs 3,14,124 crore, NTPC Ltd’s share closed at Rs 323.95 per share, up by 1 percent from its previous close. The stock of the company gave a negative return of 4.60 percent over the last year.
Key Rationale
Strong long-term growth roadmap: NTPC is targeting close to US$178 billion (Rs 17.09 lakh crore) in planned capex by 2037. This large investment programme is expected to support capacity expansion and create multiple growth opportunities as India’s power demand continues to rise over the coming years.
Capacity expansion: NTPC aims to increase its power generation capacity by 64 percent to 149 GW by FY32 and further by another 64 percent to 244 GW by FY37. This aggressive expansion plan provides the company with a clear long-term growth roadmap and strengthens its position in India’s expanding power sector.
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Multiple growth engines: NTPC is building growth across renewable energy, battery energy storage systems and nuclear power. The company has a 30 GW nuclear capacity ambition, which represents a significant part of India’s planned nuclear capacity. This diversified approach gives NTPC exposure to multiple segments of India’s energy transition.
Strong cash flow visibility: NTPC’s regulated business continues to provide steady cash flows, giving the company funding flexibility for its large expansion plans. According to CLSA, these predictable cash flows can support investments across new capacity while maintaining visibility on the company’s long-term growth and expansion plans.
Improving returns: CLSA expects NTPC’s profit after tax growth to drive a 130 basis points improvement in return on equity between FY26 and FY29. The brokerage expects the company’s expanding capacity and multiple growth engines to support earnings growth, while stronger returns could provide room for a further rerating.
CLSA has an Outperform rating on NTPC with a target price of Rs 459, implying around 42 percent upside. The brokerage expects NTPC’s transition toward renewables, storage, and nuclear power, along with its regulated business, to support a rerating of the stock.
Conclusion
Overall, NTPC’s large capex plan, 244 GW capacity target, and expansion into renewables, storage, and nuclear power provide multiple long-term growth drivers. With stable cash flows from its regulated business and expected improvement in ROE, CLSA sees scope for earnings growth and a rerating, supporting its target price and Outperform stance.
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About the Company
Established in 1975, NTPC has evolved from a thermal power generator into a diversified energy major with a presence across the entire value chain from conventional and renewable generation to coal mining, power trading, e-mobility, and green hydrogen. With an installed capacity ~91 GW, NTPC powers every fourth light in India while advancing the country’s clean energy ambitions.
Financial Highlight: NTPC’s revenue increased to Rs 50,741 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 47,064 crore in Q1 FY26, registering an 8 percent growth YoY. EBITDA increased to Rs 16,231 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 12,579 crore in Q1 FY26, up 29 percent YoY. Net profit increased to Rs 6,896 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 6,108 crore in Q1 FY26, up 12 percent YoY. EPS stood at Rs 6.93 in Q1 FY27 compared with Rs 6.20 in Q1 FY26, up 12 percent YoY.