Shares of Molbio Diagnostics Ltd. jumped nearly 9% after Jefferies maintained coverage with a ₹1,600 target, putting the spotlight back on its post-IPO growth story. This article examines whether TrueNat’s expansion, rising capacity utilization, operating leverage, and newer platforms such as OptraScan and Prorad can sustain the earnings growth projected by the brokerage.
Molbio Diagnostics was recently trading around ₹1,316 per share, with a market capitalization of roughly ₹15,147 crore and a P/E of around 70x. The stock’s 52-week range was approximately ₹926–₹1,687.
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TrueNat remains the core growth engine
Molbio’s flagship TrueNat platform contributed about 86% of FY26 revenue, making it the biggest driver of the investment thesis. The portable, battery-operated molecular diagnostics platform supports 30 diseases through 43 assays and had more than 12,500 devices installed across 90+ countries as of March 31, 2026.
Jefferies estimates TrueNat can continue growing at around 15% CAGR, while comparing its roughly $130 million revenue base with the approximately $3 billion scale of GeneXpert. This indicates that the brokerage sees further room for international and disease-menu expansion rather than treating TrueNat as a mature product.
Capacity utilization
The bigger part of Jefferies’ thesis is operating leverage. The brokerage expects Molbio’s revenue to grow at 22% CAGR between FY26 and FY29, while EBITDA and PAT are projected to compound at 36% and 47%, respectively. It also expects EBITDA margins to expand by around 830 basis points, from approximately 22% in FY26 to 31% by FY29.
A key assumption is manufacturing utilization. Molbio entered FY27 with 58% test-kit and 42% device capacity utilisation, giving the company headroom to increase volumes without immediately requiring major incremental capacity expenditure.
New platforms are central to the next phase
Jefferies believes Molbio’s story is gradually moving beyond TrueNat. The company has expanded into portable radiology through Prognosys Medical Systems and digital pathology through OptraScan.
The brokerage expects Prognosys to contribute around 13% and OptraScan around 11% of revenue by FY29, potentially reducing the company’s dependence on its flagship platform. Molbio is also developing 34 additional assays across 22 diseases, extending its pipeline beyond infectious diseases into areas such as oncology and other non-communicable diseases.
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Q1 FY27 shows the operating leverage story
Molbio reported Q1 FY27 total income of ₹411.48 crore, compared with ₹100.47 crore in Q1 FY26. EBITDA turned positive at ₹103.68 crore, with a 25.2% margin, while PAT stood at ₹52.74 crore versus a loss of ₹23.94 crore a year earlier.
However, management highlighted that around ₹57 crore of export orders pertaining to Q4 FY26 were deferred and recognised in Q1 FY27. It also described the business as having a non-linear quarterly revenue profile, meaning the quarterly numbers need to be assessed alongside the full-year trend.
Despite the diversification potential, Jefferies identifies concentration as a major risk, with around 80% of FY26 revenue coming from the B2G segment and nearly 70% from TB testing. At the same time, the brokerage expects continued TrueNat expansion, higher test-kit capacity utilization, margin expansion, and increasing contributions from OptraScan and Prognosys to drive Molbio’s earnings over the coming years.
These factors form the core of Jefferies’ bullish thesis on Molbio Diagnostics and help explain the sharp post-target rally in the stock. The combination of TrueNat’s international growth runway, improving operating leverage and the scaling of newer platforms provides the foundation for the brokerage’s projected 22% revenue CAGR, 36% EBITDA CAGR and 47% PAT CAGR through FY29, supporting its ₹1,600 price target.
Conclusion
Jefferies’ ₹1,600 target, which is an upside of 27% from the previous day’s closing, is fundamentally an earnings-growth thesis: sustained TrueNat expansion, higher manufacturing utilization, rising margins, and successful scaling of newer diagnostic platforms. With the stock having already corrected substantially from its ₹1,686.50 post-listing high, the market reaction suggests renewed attention on whether Molbio can deliver the FY29 earnings trajectory embedded in the brokerage’s valuation.